Fundamental Truths in a league where winning and losing is all important. Every extra point over the next guy is exponentially important in producing wins. And in fantasy, wins are what is important. Look at a graph of a player’s average points per game VS how many other players he’s outperformed every week.
Over-supply vs. Shortage. What can you drop down to, to get a scarcer resource. My league starts 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE,1 Flex(RB,WR or TE), 1K, and 1DST. For each starting slot, we are allowed to roster a backup. My league has 14 teams this year, so that’s 14 starting QB for instance. Below is data, where you can assess if a position has a shortage, and which ones has a abundance that you may be willing to trade away and not really lose performance.
How to read: The spread indicates the points scored so far by the top player and the 14th player. Inside the bar is a number of the total points scored by that those players. If the spread is great, then there is a big difference between the 2 players. If the number in bar is great, then that means that most of the players are the same level, compared to a bar with a smaller number. See below for the data in table format. isbackup=0 means good enough to be starter. isbackup=1 means good enough to be 2nd starter. isbackup=2 means it player that would be a rostered as backup. Ideally there would only be 14 players in a starter, but sometimes computer will rank 3 players as the same, so the 15,16,and 17th players are all ranked 17 and end up in the starter spot. Not a big difference really, if they are ranked the same.
| pos | bottom | top | spread | totalpt | players | isbackup |
| DST | 62 | 117 | 55 | 1155 | 14 | 0 |
| DST | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | ||
| DST | 37 | 61 | 24 | 706 | 14 | 2 |
| K | 106 | 175 | 69 | 1759 | 14 | 0 |
| K | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | ||
| K | 64 | 107 | 43 | 1182 | 14 | 2 |
| QB | 181 | 284 | 103 | 3180 | 14 | 0 |
| QB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | ||
| QB | 128 | 186 | 58 | 2086 | 13 | 2 |
| RB | 70 | 251 | 181 | 2397 | 14 | 0 |
| RB | 61 | 167 | 106 | 1553 | 14 | 1 |
| RB | 56 | 110 | 54 | 2061 | 25 | 2 |
| TE | 79 | 189 | 110 | 1699 | 14 | 0 |
| TE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | ||
| TE | 61 | 93 | 32 | 919 | 12 | 2 |
| WR | 69 | 260 | 191 | 2143 | 14 | 0 |
| WR | 97 | 192 | 95 | 1966 | 14 | 1 |
| WR | 66 | 140 | 74 | 2723 | 28 | 2 |
Looking at it from another angle, you can see how each position scores it’s points, before deciding on improving one position over another.
Have to start somewhere: Starting from how all the players who have scored in points in fantasy this year
Then: We see the share that each position shares in those performances. WR, RB, and TE are outsized bc there are many more marginally performing players, while QB, K, DST position always starts the same player. There are much less players at that position that come in and do one or 2 plays. Same kicker kicks all FG. DST always starts despite who get hurt. And backup QB usually only play when the starter is hurt. The other positions depend on the offensive package, and the play that the coach has called. They are the main reason the 0 to 5, and 5 to 10 point bins are so outsized. (Which statistic may be deceiving? Average pts/player@pos/gm, OR Average pts for all player@pos/gm? Why?). The Line graphs show the performances based-lined to 0, rather than slice of the whole universe.
Focus: Here we change the graph for RB, WR, TE, to make each category standout more. You can tell there are a lot of RB, WR, TE who do bit offensive category roles for their teams. Kickers and Defense perform in a tight distribution area. QB perform at a higher, but slightly more distributed area.
Refinement: Let’s weed out players that didn’t make our Rankings lists
Hindsight: If we included the performance of players that were in lineups this year, and compare them to the performances of players that should be in starting lineups this year, would it mean that we pick the best players? No, in our case, it is more a matter of our ability to draft well. Those fantasy owners that do, can hold good players on the bench, away from the starting lineups of other owners. The Rank distribution is a hypothetical one based on premise that we all drafted the best performing player for the future 16 weeks (13 reg fantasy season + 3 playoffs) at draft time.
Position – Season Long Wins Ranking
Flex – Season long Wins Ranking
Position – Season Long Pts Ranking
Flex – Season long Points Ranking
Position – Ranking using the week number as weighting for Wins, so later games weigh more heavily
Flex – Ranking using the week number as weighting, so later games weigh more heavily
Position – Ranking using the week number as weighting for Points, so later games weigh more heavily
How to read: The vertical axis indicates his rank according to the metric. So the better players are at bottom. The horizontal axis indicates their performance relative to the top and bottom performers in the category.
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