The easiest way to describe how a player has performed this season, is to compare how many points a player has scored this season. One statistics and probability class later, and suddenly the question becomes, what is the probability that Player A scores more points than Player B, therefore winning that position. Let’s say we… Continue reading What the hell is wins ranking?!?

My process had a bug and didn’t load the IR reports for week 10. So some names that shouldn’t be there are (and will throw off the rankings at little), but you shouldn’t be relying on this for selection purposes anyway. Just to see what happens in the next week. Let’s look how the players… Continue reading Week 10 Rankings and handicaps

How did our rankings from weeks 1-8 do for week 9? Closer to what was expected, than for week 8. Both charts show a grouping around the line, y=x and fit is better for both. Theory last week was as the player performance was more erratic, the wins ranking would be a better fit, whereas… Continue reading Value of rankings for wk10: Who do I choose?

Pundits state strong offenses result in strong kicker performance. I have blindly followed this adage for 1/2 dozens years now. I personally have looked for teams with large PaYd, but not so much RuYd, which hypothetically makes it harder to punch it in for TD. TD means 1 pt for EP vs 3-5pt in my… Continue reading Kickers: An appendage of the QB?

Actually the average performance for the player here, was a better predictor than defensive handicap. This is like saying Derek Jeter has average this season of 0.300, but a team hits .220 against a pitcher where the team hits .270 against the league, but Jeter went 2/4. Did defense get worse or offenses get better… Continue reading Handicap for Defense faced for week 10: Our not so crystal ball

Let’s create a laboratory experiment with 4 different forecasting methods. 1 control using ranking using total points, as Expected Value for ranking for next week. 3 other methods: Ranking using wins percentage ranking Ranking using Weighted average of recent points, using later weeks with stronger weight Ranking using Weighted average of recent wins, using later… Continue reading Ranking Players (2/2) – Forecasting future performance

There is a level of satisfaction/disappointment of seeing where my players are ranked in the total points scored department. It tells me how good my players in each position are, where my weaknesses in my roster need to addresses, and discover if there were players that were previously unknown to me. Unfortunately for me, by… Continue reading Ranking Players (1/2) – Assessing past performance

So how did our week 7 forecasts work out. X-axis is the % of handicap added to player’s average for week8 based on defensive stats from weeks 1-7 Y-axis is the actual performance of the player for week 8, specifically the % deviation from a player’s average from weeks 1-7. In a few words, less… Continue reading Effect of Defense on Fantasy Statistics (2/2)