Defensive handicap for week 11

byuan6

Teams

Effect of Defense from a player’s average for Week 11

It is obvious a good defense will have an effect on a on a player’s fantasy performance, or this statistic wouldn’t have such a prominent trend. But the effect has a great deal of variation that the predictive value for a single game has limited utility. Plus the percentage change indicated is in actual point value usually so small, that other effects can overwhelm the trend created by the defense. But as more and more games are played. It is obvious that players will perform above or below their season’s average consistently when facing these defenses. But that doesn’t mean, that a fluke play here or there, or a well executed game plan by a team’s coach won’t skew the stats one or two games. However, it should be noted that the greatest effect averaged out for a bad or good defense is +/-30% from their average. Meaning if the player is good they average 20pts/gm. That is only 6 pts over their average. A practical illustration is : A break-out game out of now-where can be a +20pts over their season average up to that point. Or an injury in a game results in a -15 from season average. So don’t put all your eggs in one basket.

One of the charts contains QB, WR,TE statistics bc those are passing statistics. If QB numbers go up, the WR and/or TE points should also go up. It is possible for WR points to go down, and TE’s to go up, if a team guards WR extremely well, or a game plan is to avoid a strength at defending WR’s. But as you can see on chart, that rarely happens for the very good or very bad defenses. Also TE’s generally average less per game, so a point increase probably increases the percentage stat higher on the chart. It’s one of idiosyncrasies of using statistics using percentages. If your QB passes 100yd more than average, the TE and WR and RB positions added together should reflect that extra 100yds. But it’s possible for the QB to pass for extra 50%, but the TE who average 10yds a game, gets 50yds that same game, which is 400% increase. But the other positions log only the remaining extra 50yds where they only normally avg 200yds per gm, which is just 25% increase. So it looks weird that QB has 50% increase, but the TE has 400% and WR %25 increases. But the math is right, depending on how it’s calculated. But remember the alternative is to take the average point increases for each player whether they are bit player or major ones. Is it fair to average backup chandler’s 7pts per game to grontkowski’s 20pts per game, and therefore average chandlers 1pt/gm increase facing a bad TE defense vs grontkowski’s 7pt increase, as if they were the same player.

The other charts are for RB and K positions. The RB chart also includes QB position, to provide contrast to how a team that defends the run well, if it weakens their pass defense statistics. We chose QB position as an analog of the entire passing game. It might just as well be because they are so bad in one category that the opposing team doesn’t bother with the other category. It happens also.


Reading data…

Reading data…

  Handicap Team applies to Opposing Position
Teams Team OpposingPos PaYdDiff PaYdPct PaYdPtDiff PaYdPtPct PaTDDiff PaTDPct PaTDPtDiff PaTDPtPct TotPtPct StdevPtPct
GB K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -27.5 48.8
NE K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -24.6 56.9
KC K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -22.7 35.8
ATL K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -20.7 38.6
SF K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -19.8 43.9
TEN K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -17.4 50
DEN K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -16 58.3
CIN K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -14.9 60.8
BUF K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -13.9 60
HOU K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -12.4 50.5
PIT K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -11.2 37.5
NYJ K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -11.2 49.8
MIA K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -9.5 42.4
TB K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -5.1 55.2
WSH K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -4.3 50.6
DAL K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3.2 40.6
IND K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3.2 49.8
MIN K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4.4 68.3
DET K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4.5 45.2
CAR K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5.8 69.4
ARI K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7.2 74.5
CLE K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9.4 43.8
NO K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9.7 56.5
PHI K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12.8 58.5
STL K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14.7 33.5
SD K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16.2 69.5
CHI K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16.2 64.1
SEA K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20.3 58.3
BAL K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 21.2 81.8
NYG K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22.2 44.3
JAX K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 26.4 54.6
OAK K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 36.3 32.7
DEN QB -44 -16.5 -1 -12.6 0 -35 -3 -40.4 -29.9 33.9
DAL QB -32 -11.8 -1 -10.2 0 -10 -3 -31 -20.4 29.9
STL QB -5 -3.2 0 0.7 0 -5.6 -3 -39.2 -19.7 34.3
SEA QB -15 -5 0 0.5 0 -30 -2 -37.5 -14.9 56
CAR QB -4 -1 0 2 0 -12.5 -2 -30.2 -12.2 40.3
MIN QB -13 -5.8 0 -0.4 0 20 0 -17.7 -10.8 21.4
CIN QB -11 -2.7 0 -0.5 0 10 0 -15.9 -9.6 23.9
NYJ QB -38 -14.9 -1 -12.3 0 31.3 0 -3.6 -9.1 30.8
BUF QB -6 -3.4 0 -1.4 0 11.1 0 -11.1 -8.5 26.3
HOU QB -27 -10.6 -1 -10.5 0 33.3 0 3.7 -6.7 46.6
ATL QB -1 -1.4 0 4.2 0 -5.6 -1 -8.2 -6.6 25.6
TB QB -34 -14 0 -10.5 0 43.8 0 13.6 -5.4 41.9
SD QB 0 -1 0 4.4 0 30 0 -4 -4.3 30.6
KC QB -11 -2.7 0 2 0 40 1 18.7 -2 45.5
NE QB 36 13.8 1 19.3 0 6.3 -1 -17.3 -1.7 46.1
JAX QB 20 7.4 1 12.2 0 50 0 2.5 -0.1 30.9
PIT QB 24 10.5 1 18.7 0 10 0 1.4 0.3 39.7
TEN QB -32 -13.3 0 -10.6 0 44.4 0 4.2 0.3 23.3
CHI QB -25 -9.1 0 -1.5 0 50 2 20.5 2.5 39.4
WSH QB -17 -5.6 0 -0.5 0 45 2 25 3.1 33.7
ARI QB -17 -8.4 0 -6.6 0 35 1 31.3 6.4 36.1
IND QB 14 6.5 1 12.2 0 66.7 1 21.7 6.7 26.6
OAK QB 34 12 1 18.5 0 35 0 10.8 6.9 24.7
SF QB 36 13.8 1 20.4 0 50 1 18.1 7.7 36
GB QB 28 9.5 1 17.6 0 15 0 4 7.8 27.4
MIA QB 19 7.2 1 13 0 75 2 30.5 9.7 26.4
CLE QB 12 3.7 1 9.5 0 60 2 17.3 11.2 31.4
DET QB 9 4.8 0 11.6 0 15 0 29.8 13 40.4
PHI QB -1 0.2 0 2 0 88.9 3 45.2 13.5 43.4
BAL QB 18 7.4 1 17.4 0 16.7 1 22.6 13.8 46.3
NYG QB 54 20.6 2 29.7 0 38.9 3 44.2 23.8 59.5
NO QB 45 18.1 2 24 1 88.9 5 59.3 36.7 42.2
PIT RB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -28.7 25.2
KC RB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -24.7 38.6
TEN RB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -23.2 32
NYJ RB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -20.5 45.9
SEA RB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -15.3 26.5
PHI RB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -12.3 41.9
TB RB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -10.3 35.3
NE RB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -9.5 21.4
CIN RB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -8 33.5
CHI RB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -5.3 20.8
MIN RB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -4.8 58
NYG RB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -4.3 28.4
WSH RB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -4.3 48.8
ARI RB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3.8 38.2
GB RB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3.3 56.1
DAL RB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3.3 39
BAL RB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1.9 34.2
BUF RB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1.7 35.3
STL RB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.7 41.7
DET RB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.4 36.3
NO RB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3.7 34
DEN RB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3.9 32
CAR RB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4.2 30.8
HOU RB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6.9 55.3
IND RB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7.3 39.8
JAX RB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 51.2
OAK RB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13.4 48.8
CLE RB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 50.5
MIA RB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 23.7 32.9
ATL RB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 27.9 57.6
SF RB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 41.4
SD RB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 33 49
KC TE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -43.1 35.8
HOU TE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -41.9 57.1
BUF TE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -38 44.7
ARI TE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -33.3 32.9
NYJ TE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -29.6 49.3
BAL TE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -23.8 74
DAL TE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -21.3 49.6
DEN TE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -20.6 39.2
WSH TE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -18.4 52.2
CHI TE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -17.5 57.4
MIA TE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -15 84.8
IND TE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -12.5 64.6
CLE TE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -11.8 70.5
PHI TE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -9.7 47.6
TB TE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -9.3 87.7
NE TE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -4 51.9
STL TE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.2 51.4
PIT TE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7.3 66.3
SF TE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7.3 50.9
SD TE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7.5 54.2
MIN TE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 71.2
GB TE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13.2 63.7
CAR TE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16.9 66.4
CIN TE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 89.4
DET TE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 19.7 59
JAX TE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 27.3 89.3
NO TE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 28.5 72.9
SEA TE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30.9 73.1
TEN TE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 33 104.2
NYG TE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 35.1 74.2
ATL TE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 39.8 71.5
OAK TE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50.1 123.8
SEA WR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -28.8 38.7
DEN WR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -28.6 53.4
ATL WR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -28.2 32.3
STL WR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -24.4 27.6
DAL WR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -19.2 27.9
SD WR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -15.5 26.2
CAR WR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -15.5 30.7
NYJ WR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -12.4 37.6
TEN WR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -11.6 23.8
HOU WR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -11.6 27.4
CIN WR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -5.9 47
JAX WR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -5.2 36.9
CHI WR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -4.5 39.9
ARI WR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.4 44.2
MIN WR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.8 31.3
TB WR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.4 23.1
CLE WR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.5 31.9
BUF WR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3.4 24
OAK WR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3.5 33.1
MIA WR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7.4 21.5
GB WR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 30.3
IND WR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8.3 35.6
WSH WR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9.7 35.3
DET WR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10.5 45.4
SF WR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12.1 28
NE WR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12.9 31.5
NO WR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13.4 39
KC WR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 19.1 34.1
BAL WR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 19.3 58.4
NYG WR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 26.4 39.1
PIT WR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 26.7 50.2
PHI WR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 26.7 47.3
Player pos Team PtRank WinRank AvgPt PtForecast
Cam Newton QB CAR 3 3 27.5 28
Carson Palmer QB ARI 2 2 28.1 25
Tom Brady QB NE 1 1 29.2 27
Andrew Luck QB IND 5 5 25.71 24
Andy Dalton QB CIN 7 4 24.6 26
Derek Carr QB OAK 11 11 22.7 26
Aaron Rodgers QB GB 6 7 25 22
Philip Rivers QB SD 8 6 23.9 23
Russell Wilson QB SEA 19 15 20.5 22
Jameis Winston QB TB 13 14 21.3 24
Matt Ryan QB ATL 15 18 20.9 22
Ryan Fitzpatrick QB NYJ 20 17 20.4 19
Jay Cutler QB CHI 18 21 20.56 14
Brian Hoyer QB HOU 17 16 20.57 19
Matthew Stafford QB DET 20 22 20.4 22
Ryan Tannehill QB MIA 16 23 20.6 16
Marcus Mariota QB TEN 14 19 21.25 21
Alex Smith QB KC 24 25 18.2 17
Sam Bradford QB PHI 25 26 17.11 16
Teddy Bridgewater QB MIN 27 27 15.2 16
Tyrod Taylor QB BUF 22 20 20.38 20
LeSean McCoy RB BUF 8 5 15.5 14
Adrian Peterson RB MIN 3 4 16.6 16
Devonta Freeman RB ATL 1 2 22.4 24
Todd Gurley RB STL 2 11 16.88 17
DeMarco Murray RB PHI 7 6 15.67 14
Lamar Miller RB MIA 6 10 15.8 15
Matt Forte RB CHI 4 3 16.43 17
Doug Martin RB TB 9 9 15.1 13
Jonathan Stewart RB CAR 19 17 11.5 11
Darren McFadden RB DAL 19 20 11.5 14
Giovani Bernard RB CIN 13 7 12.8 12
Frank Gore RB IND 16 15 12.2 16
Latavius Murray RB OAK 15 12 12.4 13
Chris Ivory RB NYJ 10 8 15 16
Marshawn Lynch RB SEA 21 19 11 14
Charcandrick West RB KC 14 22 12.57 17
Theo Riddick RB DET 24 18 10.8 12
Ryan Mathews RB PHI 21 26 11 10
Danny Woodhead RB SD 11 13 14.4 11
Charles Sims RB TB 30 23 9.7 9
Chris Johnson RB ARI 25 24 10.5 10
James Starks RB GB 29 32 9.9 9
Jeremy Langford RB CHI 26 42 10.44 11
Ronnie Hillman RB DEN 35 28 9.1 9
Karlos Williams RB BUF 12 16 12.86 12
LeGarrette Blount RB NE 18 31 11.56 11
Jeremy Hill RB CIN 33 27 9.5 9
Carlos Hyde RB SF 21 21 11 9
Dexter McCluster RB TEN 41 37 7.5 8
Darren Sproles RB PHI 39 35 7.7 7
Melvin Gordon RB SD 43 34 7.2 5
Antonio Andrews RB TEN 37 36 8 9
Alfred Blue RB HOU 46 47 6.78 5
Eddie Lacy RB GB 42 41 7.33 7
C.J. Anderson RB DEN 47 43 6.3 6
Thomas Rawls RB SEA 34 49 9.22 12
David Johnson RB ARI 38 33 7.8 7
Ameer Abdullah RB DET 48 46 5.9 7
Marcel Reece RB OAK 49 50 5.7 6
DeAndre Hopkins WR HOU 2 1 22.9 20
Julio Jones WR ATL 1 2 24 26
Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI 4 3 20.3 19
Eric Decker WR NYJ 12 7 16.33 14
Brandon Marshall WR NYJ 9 5 17.9 16
Alshon Jeffery WR CHI 5 6 19.4 14
Julian Edelman WR NE 7 4 18.89 20
Demaryius Thomas WR DEN 11 8 16.7 16
Mike Evans WR TB 14 16 15.75 20
Calvin Johnson WR DET 16 13 15.4 16
Jarvis Landry WR MIA 15 11 15.6 13
Michael Crabtree WR OAK 18 19 15.3 17
Stefon Diggs WR MIN 20 14 14.57 16
A.J. Green WR CIN 13 17 16.2 16
Michael Floyd WR ARI 32 46 12 11
Kamar Aiken WR BAL 43 41 10.78 8
Amari Cooper WR OAK 22 21 14.2 16
Danny Amendola WR NE 44 44 10.7 11
Randall Cobb WR GB 25 24 13.5 14
Golden Tate WR DET 45 36 10.5 11
Anquan Boldin WR SF 37 42 11.38 8
John Brown WR ARI 24 22 13.56 13
T.Y. Hilton WR IND 26 26 13.1 9
Doug Baldwin WR SEA 38 38 11.2 13
Rishard Matthews WR MIA 28 27 12.9 10
Steve Johnson WR SD 41 33 10.88 13
Jeremy Maclin WR KC 29 25 12.89 11
Ted Ginn Jr. WR CAR 48 40 9.9 11
Terrance Williams WR DAL 49 34 9.89 11
Marvin Jones WR CIN 46 47 10.4 10
Nate Washington WR HOU 27 28 13 11
Emmanuel Sanders WR DEN 21 23 14.44 14
Kendall Wright WR TEN 39 39 11.14 11
Jordan Matthews WR PHI 32 32 12 12
Donte Moncrief WR IND 35 30 11.7 8
Tavon Austin WR STL 36 43 11.4 14
James Jones WR GB 31 31 12.6 13
Lance Moore WR DET 53 53 7.7 8
Robert Woods WR BUF 54 54 7.6 9
Greg Olsen TE CAR 4 4 15.2 12
Rob Gronkowski TE NE 1 1 17.9 11
Delanie Walker TE TEN 6 3 14.22 18
Crockett Gillmore TE BAL 10 8 11.13 11
Brent Celek TE PHI 16 13 9.33 8
Travis Kelce TE KC 8 6 12.4 13
Tyler Eifert TE CIN 3 7 15.3 10
Jimmy Graham TE SEA 11 11 10.6 11
Jason Witten TE DAL 11 9 10.6 9
Jacob Tamme TE ATL 15 17 9.44 8
Martellus Bennett TE CHI 13 12 10.5 8
Coby Fleener TE IND 21 22 7.7 11
Zach Ertz TE PHI 22 19 7.4 7
Richard Rodgers TE GB 19 18 8.7 9
Owen Daniels TE DEN 24 23 7.2 6
Kyle Rudolph TE MIN 20 21 7.8 9
Ladarius Green TE SD 14 14 10.13 6
Charles Clay TE BUF 18 20 9.1 9
Eric Ebron TE DET 17 15 9.25 14
Jared Cook TE STL 27 26 5.3 4
Jordan Cameron TE MIA 26 24 6 5
Garrett Celek TE SF 28 27 5.2 7
Graham Gano K CAR 4 5 8.9 9
Stephen Gostkowski K NE 1 2 10.4 9
Connor Barth K TB 2 1 9.67 11
Chandler Catanzaro K ARI 6 6 8.8 7
Cairo Santos K KC 7 8 8.7 10
Robbie Gould K CHI 5 4 8.89 7
Blair Walsh K MIN 12 9 7.6 6
Dan Bailey K DAL 14 10 7.5 7
Mike Nugent K CIN 18 16 6.8 7
Justin Tucker K BAL 10 12 8 9
Steve Hauschka K SEA 11 11 7.9 6
Caleb Sturgis K PHI 16 14 7.14 7
Adam Vinatieri K IND 25 23 5.7 5
Sebastian Janikowski K OAK 17 15 6.9 7
Brandon McManus K DEN 9 7 8.1 9
Dan Carpenter K BUF 22 20 6.1 5
Mason Crosby K GB 15 17 7.3 8
Josh Lambo K SD 19 18 6.6 5
Matt Prater K DET 26 27 5.2 7
Phil Dawson K SF 24 24 5.8 7
Matt Bryant K ATL 21 21 6.3 7
Ryan Succop K TEN 26 26 5.2 7
Greg Zuerlein K STL 26 24 5.2 6

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